Feeling a bit silly again. Hard not to during earnings season, right?

I was just thinking – why do people seem to complain about the cost of healthcare. There’s rarely extra money for useful things like like prescription drugs, hospitals, health insurance premiums and the like, but there is always room for daily $4 coffees and $300 iPhones…without the service plan.

We wake up, grab our coffee at Dunkin’ Donuts, because “America Runs on Dunkin,” turn on our Macs/iPads because we like to believe we “Think Different,” and open a browser to the NY Times, where “All the News That’s Fit to Print” lives.

Why not get development stage biotech companies with cool platforms into the game and introduce folks to the the next greatest cure-all?

Let’s take a quick look through two platform companies that used a slogan to show how cool they were/are. I’m sure there are more, but these are the ones I remember.

Lexicon Genetics ($LXRX) spent hundreds of millions of dollars to develop transgenic mouse knock-out models as a way to identify drugable pathways. Once they found some cool targets, they initiated their 10TO10 program back in January 2007, and confidently announced that “With two investigational new drugs already in clinical trials and two more INDs to be filed this year, we believe we are well on our way to achieving our goal of ten drug candidates in human clinical trials by 2010.”

At that point, everything looked good, with two assets in Phase I: LX6171 for treating cognitive impairment, as found in disease such as Alzheimer’s, schizophrenia or vascular dementia, and LX1031, that was being developed for irritable bowel syndrome and other gastrointestinal disorders. They had also promised that in the second half of 2007, they would be filing IND applications for LX2931 for rheumatoid arthritis and LX1032 for gastrointestinal disorders.

When 2008 rolled around they had indeed make good on the four programs highlighted, leaving them with six assets to get into the clinics by 2010.  Sounds do-able, get 3 INDs approved in 2008 and in 2009, and goal achieved!

How did they fare in 2008? Not so hot as their 4Q08 press release revealed:

“In 2008, the company made significant progress in moving multiple drug development programs forward,” said Dr. Arthur T. Sands, president and chief executive officer of Lexicon.  “As part of our focus on the development of our pipeline, we streamlined operations and concentrated our resources on our most promising programs.  We look forward to reporting data from several of our programs as they progress through clinical trials this year for irritable bowel syndrome, carcinoid syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes.”

Of course they still managed to spend $100 MM in 2008 as part of their streamlining process. Not too hot. Their 10TO10 program lasted one entire year. Today, they are still developing a handful of compounds and spending close to $100 MM annually.

Drats. That experiment failed. It must have been due solely on those bad banks, right?

Let’s go beyond the crash of 2008 and look at Infinity Pharmaceuticals ($INFI)? They announced their I4 2012 (“Eye for 2012”) objectives in January 2009, also with confidence as they entered the new year:

“Begins 2009 With Four Years of Capital, Three Clinical Candidates  in Development, Two New INDs, and One Pivotal Trial” – sounds like a great way to kick off 2009, especially after a pretty brutal 4Q08.

Here are the I4 2012 claims:

“The four major strategic achievements that will distinguish Infinity by 2012:

* At least one marketed oncology product, commercialized by Infinity in the U.S.
* Three oncology product candidates in global pivotal trials
* Five or more product candidates in clinical development
* A strong financial profile and exceptional value-creation”

Just a couple of months later, in their 1Q09 press release, there was no additional mention of I4 2012 initiative. Bummer. Of course, having a Phase 3 program terminated doesn’t help one’s cause.

As we approach the end of 2011, where does $INFI stand?

* At least one marketed oncology product, commercialized by Infinity in the U.S. → NOPE
* Three oncology product candidates in global pivotal trials → NOPE
* Five or more product candidates in clinical development  → NOPE
* A strong financial profile and exceptional value-creation → Give them credit here for their partnerships and R&D based funding

Oops, strike two.

There is no sure thing in  science, and publicly-traded biotech companies are even more at risk. Maybe it is not such a good thing to advertise for success.

I’ve got my fingers crossed for Alnylam’s ($ALNY) 5×15 program, which promises that “By 2015, the company expects to have five RNAi therapeutic programs in advanced clinical development…with ALN-TTR (for the treatment of transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis (ATTR), for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia, and for the treatment of refractory anemia…”

Looks like they are off to a good start.

Maybe we’ll get one right, finally. Maybe.